Throughout the second quarter of 2008, southern Nevada gross population
in-migration rates continued to show signs of weakening. Measured by the
number of people surrendering their driver's licenses at Nevada Department of
Motor Vehicle's offices, the total number fell by 13.8 percent when compared to
the same quarter of the previous year. Worth noting is that the 16,101 licenses
surrendered in the most recent quarter was the lowest level reported since the
first quarter of 1995.
Economic uncertainty prevails across the country, a factor which is materially
impacting population migration patterns. Employment and retirement are the two
largest motivating factors for people moving into southern Nevada. A weakening
economy, a general sense of uncertainty and an unprecedented number of
households that are tethered to homes where they owe more than the home is
worth, is increasing downward pressure on in migration. During the third quarter
of 2008, 17,461 drivers' licenses were surrendered, representing a 12.4 percent
decrease from the 19,925 surrendered during the same quarter in the previous
year. The twelve month rolling total ending September 2008 was also down 11.6
percent, after being down 8.5 percent during the same period of 2007. It is
important to note that the third quarter historically is the largest in
migration rate experienced during the year. Current conditions represent the
lowest third quarter total in migration rate reported since 1994.
Current conditions continue to exhibit weakness. The national Consumer
Confidence Index ("CCI") decreased during the third quarter of 2008 when
compared to the same quarter in the previous year. During September (the last
month of the quarter), the index decreased by 38.3 percent to an index value of
61.4, a change attributable to both the deterioration in consumer attitudes
toward their present situation (down 49.6 percent) and decreased hopes in their
future expectation (down 27.6 percent). It is important to note that future
expectations when compared to the previous month have increased, showing a
current belief of improvement on the horizon.
The Mountain Region CCI (which includes Nevada) experienced a similar trend
decreasing 44.9 points to an index value of 75.0 at the close of the third
quarter. This translated into a 37.4-percent decrease when compared to the same
quarter in the previous year, and represented the second largest quarterly
decrease experienced within the last five years. It is important to note that
although annual comparisons have declined, when the current quarter is compared
to the most previous quarter the future expectation has increased by 24.3 points
or 51.9 percent. Surveys indicate that although current conditions have not
improved, consumers believe there are positive changes on the horizon.
With the general election only weeks away, the third quarter of 2008 also saw a
dramatic increase in voter registration activity. Approximately 71,900 residents
of Clark County registered to vote during the third quarter, a 24.9-percent
increase from the same quarter in 2004, the quarter prior to the most previous
general election. The Democratic Party is receiving the lion's share of
registrations, with 49.5 percent of new voters; 22.4 percent registered
Republican and 22.4 percent registering non-partisan.
As of September 30, 2008, Clark County was comprised of 370,068 (47.2 percent)
active registered Democrats, 255,865 (32.6 percent) active registered
Republicans, and 119,936 (15.3 percent) active registered non-partisan voters.
The balance of active registered voters (4.9 percent) was registered to other
parties. It is estimated that approximately 61 percent of the eligible Clark
County population is registered to vote, and only 49 percent of the eligible
population is an active registered voter. Active is defined as having not moved,
and are current with their registration. This does not necessarily mean that all
of those who are "active" are actually turning out to the polls.
Investor attitudes toward current economic downturn speculations, congressional
investment into the private sector and new presidential hopefuls will continue
to have a steady effect on consumer confidence indices, private investments, and
even in-migration rates. As these influences, coupled with many other factors,
continue to fluctuate we can expect to see key indicators vary as well. |
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CURRENT QUARTER
INDICATOR BRIEF: |
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DEMOGRAPHICS
HIGHLIGHTS: |
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1. |
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Drivers license surrenders fell 12.4 percent during the quarter to 17,461, the
lowest third quarter migration rate since 1994 |
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2. |
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The Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 38.3 percent to a value of 61.4 |
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The Mountain Region Consumer Confidence Index also decreased by 37.4 percent |
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New voter registration was 71,900 during the third quarter, the highest rate
ever recorded in Clark County |
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