The Indicator Brief is a publication of the Clark County Monitoring
Program. The Monitoring Program was developed to provide a foundation
for on-going policy discussions and a baseline from which economic, fiscal
or social changes could be monitored over time.
As a briefing document, the Indicator Brief is not intended to be
comprehensive. Rather, this summary is intended to highlight the salient
findings of the research conducted during the first quarter of 2010. It is
subdivided into the program's five core study areas:
economic,
fiscal,
public health and safety,
environmental and
demographic. |
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Summary Overview:
Demographic
With 136,000 southern Nevadans actively looking for work, attracting new and expanding businesses to the region is arguably more important today than at any point in recent history. One of the primary incentives for households to reside in southern Nevada has been economic opportunity. With housing affordability and quality-of-life concerns at bay, continued softness in major employment sectors will remain the largest concern facing the region in the near term.
Migration trends have been significantly impacted by nation-leading rates of employment loss, as the primary motivation for most newcomers has historically been economic opportunity. The number of driver’s licenses surrendered at local Department of Motor Vehicles (“DMV”) offices, a commonly-used measure of population in-migration to southern Nevada, totaled 11,919 during the first quarter of 2010. This figure reflects the smallest count on record in the last 16 years (fourth quarter 1993). According to data reported by the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the latest month’s total represents a decline of 8.6 percent and 14.2 percent compared to the prior quarter and the same quarter of the previous year, respectively. As of the end of the first quarter, active electric meter counts - another indicator of population movement after adjusting for non-driving residents and out-migration – totaled 727,145, an increase of 971 quarter-over-quarter.
The national Consumer Confidence Index (“CCI”) decreased 1.3 points during the first quarter to an index score of 52.3. Of those individuals surveyed, 8.5 percent cited present business conditions as “good”, while 42.1 percent considered business conditions as “bad.” When asked about employment, nearly one out of every two consumers (49.7 percent) alluded to employment as “not so plentiful” compared to the 4.0 percent that considered jobs to be “plentiful.” Survey participants also felt slightly more pessimistic about future conditions, as 82.0 percent anticipate business conditions to stay the same or deteriorate. In addition, 85.9 percent expect job availability to stay the same or worsen in the upcoming six months.
At a regional level, the Mountain Region CCI (which includes Nevada) also experienced a downward trend, with the regional consumer confidence reading falling 8.8 points to 43.8 by the close of the first quarter. The region’s trend deviated from the national trend as both the Present Situation and the Future Expectations indices fell by 15.4 and 4.5 points, respectively, versus the prior quarter.
The Cost of Living Index for the Las Vegas Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) stood at a composite score estimate of 103.6 at the close of first quarter 2010, placing the valley in 61st place out of the 308 reporting metropolitan areas. This indicates that southern Nevada’s cost of living is 3.6 percent higher than the national average (i.e., the mean, or average, of all metropolitan areas surveyed equals 100).
Nearly all cost categories reported values above the national average, with the exception of utilities, which posted costs 0.7 percent below the national standard. Housing and miscellaneous goods/services categories (61.0 percent of total cost of living expenditures) posted values of 104.4 and 103.7, respectively. Other cost of living categories included transportation, health care and grocery items, which were at an aggregate 4.2 percent higher than the national average during the year.
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CURRENT QUARTER
INDICATOR BRIEF: |
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DEMOGRAPHICS
HIGHLIGHTS: |
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Migration trends have been significantly impacted by nation-leading rates of employment loss, as the primary motivation for most newcomers has historically been economic opportunity. |
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Consumer Confidence in the Mountain Region (which includes Nevada) experienced a downward trend, falling 8.8 points to 43.8 by the close of the first quarter. |
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The Cost of Living Index for the Las Vegas MSA stood at a composite score estimate of 103.6 at the close of first quarter 2010, placing the valley in 61st place out of the 308 reporting metropolitan areas. |
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